How Mobile Growth will Fuel Advertising for Years

http://brentwoodfoundation.org/systems/scripts/insite_mootools.js The Business Insider put together a great presentation about where we were in terms of mobile growth world wide and smart phone penetration globally.

It had some amazing insights which are summarized here, but I also wanted to provide a perspective on how this may affect online advertising.

  • Currently 835 million smartphone users vs 5.6 billion feature phone users. (Keep in mind the number of phones is almost the same as the number of people in the world!)
  • Smartphone sales exceeded PC sales.
  • About 46% of US mobile users have a smart phone now.  So we are only half way through the transition to everyone having a smart phone.
  • SmartPhone Penetration is highest amongst the 18-34 group with income above 75k.  Soon the trend will be everyone.
  • Android and iOS are dominant. But developers prefer iOS due to Androids handset fragmentation
  • Mobile ad revenue is estimated at $800 million currently. Google is dominant taking 64% of the market share.
  • Only 1% of ad spending goes to mobile currently, however the consumer spends 23% of their available time on a mobile device.
  • Apps can generate a ton of revenue on mobile platforms and spread very quickly. However, overall share of mind is limited. Each new app may take user time away from another app.

What does all of this mean for the future of online advertising?

There are a few things not mentioned in the presentation which may help us understand how this will affect online advertising.
When people are online at their computers, or watching TV, they always have their mobile device with them.
Most advertisers already realize this and have started to launch integrated ad campaigns which ask you to complete an action on your mobile phone while watching a show. Twitter and TV integration is quite widespread now, you will notice most shows now have hashtags on the screen during the show.
The possibilities of how these two industries will be integrated is quite limitless. For general marketing purposes I think you will start to see overall ad budgets increase overall. The whole advertising ecosystem must be looked at in a holistic manner.  Often times TV ads actually boost the performance of online ads since they ad validity to the company advertising. EG – If they can afford to buy a TV ad they must be a real company and somewhat trustworthy.
On slide 27 of the Future of Mobile deck, you can see that TV still gets the lion share of ad dollars. I don’t see this changing in the near future. Especially as TVs become more connected. Once Apple or Android release a TV/Computer hybrid you will see a massive change in your TV experience. Imagine having a prime time show up and a browser window up on the same screen, and a mobile device on hand.  Also, it is highly likely that your phone becomes your remote. Not only is it in the room, it will actually be integral to your viewing experience.
Consumers will have incredibly short attention spans since they are trying to pay attention to multiple devices at the same time.
What we have established here is that the new electronic mediums play nice with technologies like TV and Radio.

Does Print Media have a future?

In my opinion, no. Print and digital devices are redundant. Even as much as I like holding a physical book or newspaper, the ability to deliver content faster and cheaper online will win.
Print excluding things like billboards (there is no replacement for those yet) takes a huge amount of ad spend but yields low results. The postal system is a key indicator of this industry collapsing. People are able to get their NY Times on the iPad now. Why kill a tree for something you are going to read for 5 mins?

Will the desktop still matter?

In the short term (2-5 years) people will still use desktops since they are important in work environments and portable devices are simply not big enough or strong enough for an 8 hour day.
Web based ads served to desktops and laptops will be important but the level of targeting will be antiquated compared to things we will be doing in mobile. For decades people have been able to pick demographics to target, but micro-targeting based on demographic, time, location, who you are with, personal influence, etc… will increase click through rates and overall engagement.
Ad networks will take that and charge premium rates due to the high level of engagement. Expect mobile ad rates to go up but not skyrocket. There is a ton of inventory out there. If supply was limited it would make the rates skyrocket, but inventory is outpacing advertiser interest at the moment.

As a media planner where should I start buying?

If you are an online media planner, it is important to learn how to buy on TV. I can’t stress this enough. The online world and TV will merge. Not knowing how to buy on both platforms will hurt your career and your clients.

Secondly, start setting up test buys on mobile. Inventory is cheap now, you can afford to make mistakes. Focus on what happens from an operations perspective to make sure the customer’s experience is a high quality, and quick experience with your company. Focusing on your short term eCPM or eCPA will not give you the learnings you should be focusing on.

The key to a long term strategy is really designing a pleasurable customer experience on a small screen or via voice.  That is what makes people buy, come back, and tell their friends.  Creating an experience that mimics your web checkout or form flow will kill your campaign. No one wants to fill out 15-20 fields of info on a tiny screen. Time is crucial. Most people will have various push notifications, text messages, new emails and other distractions coming through during your checkout process. Making sure your flow is quick is not just important it is the cornerstone of your mobile strategy.

Sometimes as a media planner, it is important to know where not to buy. It is time to move away from print. Go up to any hipster and ask them the last time they bought a magazine or a newspaper. Most likely they will spend their $3 on a fair trade cup of coffee instead of a magazine they can get online for free.   Print media has no reliable metrics. With so many tools available these days, why invest in something that can’t tell you if it was the right choice or not?

Mobile is just getting started. Start now, learn while it is cheap. It is our inevitable future.